Odds & payouts

Feeds never kill

While the star is under 1 SOL, every send is a feed. A feed has a nova threshold of zero, so it can never kill the star.

The nova roll

For a last-hit push, once its mass has been absorbed:

1. roll_ppb = sha256("soldust:roll" ‖ round.randomness ‖ push_id)[..16] mod 1_000_000_000
2. threshold_ppb = amount / (mass_before + amount): your stake's share of the mass it just created
3. The push is lethal if threshold > 0 and roll < threshold

There is no base rate, no stage table, no compounding, and no cap. The chance is the ratio. It is computed at settle time from settled mass, so a queue that moves under you can't change what your push is worth.

Examples

Push	Into a star of	Chance
0.01 SOL	1 SOL	0.99%
1 SOL	9 SOL	10%
20 SOL	1 SOL	95.2%

The biggest chance available at mass M is (21 − M) ÷ 21, because the biggest legal push is the room left before 21 SOL. One-shots are cheap on a young star (95% at 1 SOL) and near-impossible next to the hole (4.8% at 20 SOL).

The winner

The pusher who lands the lethal roll becomes the star's killer. Their final_prize is the whole prize pool, and they call claim_prize once to collect it.

Why the ratio is the only fair curve

A kill pays prize_pool, measured after your push lands, and prize_pool is exactly 96.86% of mass. So:

EV = [a / (M + a)] × 0.9686 × (M + a) = 0.9686 × a

The (M + a) cancels. Every push returns exactly 96.86% of its stake, whether it's 0.01 SOL or 20 SOL, on a 1 SOL star or a 20 SOL one, at any stage. The 3.14% fee is the only edge in the game.

Why the hole is 1 in 21

Surviving one push has probability M / (M + a), so surviving a run of them telescopes:

M0/M1 × M1/M2 × … × M(n-1)/Mn  =  M0 / Mn

Star mass is a martingale. A star therefore travels from the 1 SOL nursery cap to the 21 SOL hole exactly 1/21 = 4.76% of the time, however many people pushed and however big their pushes were.

Nursery feeders are taking fair 21:1 odds on that, which returns them the same 96.86%. Feeders and pushers sit on one book by construction, not by tuning.